Tourism in balance: Amsterdam’s data-driven model for sustainable urban tourism

Contenuto Gratuito Business case Travel Innovation Dati Pubblica Amministrazione Scenario Europeo Smart Destination Tech Trends Turismo/Hospitality/Food Febbraio 2026

Introduction: Background and Context

Amsterdam’s rapid rise as a leading international destination brought both economic opportunity and significant challenges. By the early 2010s, cultural tourists, business travelers, day-trippers and large group celebrations had created severe overcrowding, strained public space, and provoked resident unrest.

In response, the City of Amsterdam and its public-private Destination Management Organization (amsterdam&partners) launched the “Tourism in Balance” strategy in 2021. While the city leads on regulatory measures, amsterdam&partners primarily fulfills marketing, communication and coordination roles.

Central to this strategy is the effort to understand and manage the city’s Tourism Carrying Capacity (TCC), the level of visitor pressure that Amsterdam can sustain without undermining livability. As part of this process, the city introduced a cap of 20 million overnight stays per year, with an early-warning threshold at 18 million. This cap does not represent the city’s formal capacity, but rather a limit derived from public consultation, including the “Amsterdam has a choice” citizen initiative calling for action on overtourism. 

This case study examines the strategy by which Amsterdam defines, measures, and manages its visitor flows, summarizes its initial outcomes, and draws conclusions on its broader applicability.

Governance Framework

The “Tourism in Balance” initiative rests on a dual-institutional model. The municipal government retains responsibility for regulation – setting accommodation quotas, tourist taxes, and mobility restrictions – while amsterdam&partners oversees destination marketing, visitor-data analysis, and stakeholder coordination.

Residents, businesses, cultural institutions, and – recognizing the limits of local control over international air arrivals – national and European bodies are engaged through advisory forums and data–sharing agreements.

Strategic Response

Amsterdam adopted the 20 million overnight-stay cap as a binding Key Performance Indicator, though it is distinct from the city’s Tourism Carrying Capacity (TCC). The formal carrying capacity is assessed biennially and is based on two parameters: touristic pressure and visitor-related livability. The overnight cap, derived from resident consultations including “Amsterdam has a choice,” functions as a policy trigger: upon nearing the warning line, the municipality and the DMO can tighten regulations, adjust marketing messages, or deploy behavioral-change campaigns. 

Data Infrastructure

To operationalize the TCC concept, Amsterdam developed Visitor Insight, a modular data-visualization platform. Inputs include:

  1. Official statistics on hotel and short-term rental occupancy
  2. Real-time day-visitor counts via sensor networks and anonymized mobile data
  3. Passenger flows through Schiphol Airport and the cruise terminal
  4. Attendance figures from museums, theaters, and other cultural venues
  5. Qualitative surveys gauging resident perceptions of crowding and visitor behavior

Stakeholders contribute data at weekly or monthly intervals, enabling continuous monitoring, predictive modeling of future scenarios (projecting 24–28 million overnight stays by 2027), and rapid policy iteration.

Policy Interventions

The tourism rebalancing strategy combines tangible controls with intangible, behavior-shaping measures.

 

Tangible measures

Intangible measures

  • City wide quotas on hotels and bed-and-breakfasts; restrictive approval for new short-term rentals
  • A ban on hotel expansion, which prevents existing hotels from increasing bed capacity
  • Tourist tax increased to 12.5 percent of nightly rates following elasticity analysis
  • River cruise permits reduced from 2,300 to 1,150 annually; sea cruise calls capped at 100 per year; disembarkation fee raised from €8 to €14; central cruise terminal relocation to a more peripheral area planned by 2035
  • Ban on tourist coaches in the historic center
  • Qualitative research to identify problematic behaviors (nighttime noise, stag-and-hen group disruptions)
  • Regulatory curbs in high-pressure areas (Red Light District): bans on public cannabis smoking; tighter licensing and closing-hour restrictions
  • Communication campaigns as “Stay Away”, “Amsterdam Rules”, and the newer awareness-driven “Renew your view” to promote respectful conduct and redirect visitors to off-peak times or alternative sites
  • Promotion of nearby destinations (e.g. Zandvoort, the “Amsterdam Beach”) and other Dutch attractions to diffuse central-area pressure and extend the tourism season from spring through autumn

 

Results and Impact

Despite the effectiveness of containment policies – such as regulations on accommodation supply, reduction in cruise traffic, interventions on mobility, and behavioral campaigns – tourist pressure continues to grow, and in the next two years it is expected to surpass the 20 million overnight stays cap by 4 to 8 million.

However, Amsterdam is benefiting from the progressive reduction of seasonality, due to the extension of the summer tourist season, which now begins in spring and continues through autumn, helping to distribute visitor numbers more evenly throughout the year.

In this context, the main challenges for the future are not only about quantitative containment, but also the further diversification and geographic and temporal distribution of visitor flows.

From a qualitative perspective, one of the most significant outcomes of the policies launched has been the successful transformation of the city’s image. Amsterdam has a long history as a free, welcoming city and a symbol of counterculture. However, in the past this narrative has been exploited to attract visitors seeking “freedom without rules”. The aforementioned marketing campaigns, together with regulatory measures, have successfully redefined “Amsterdam freedom” in a more authentic and responsible way, highlighting the city’s cultural heritage, urban quality of life, and responsible tourism. This evolution has not only improved Amsterdam’s international reputation, but also strengthened collaboration between local stakeholders.

In addition, the data-sharing framework and joint governance forums have fostered strong partnerships among municipal authorities, the DMO, cultural institutions, transport operators and community groups. A shared evidence base has increased policy legitimacy and encouraged co-creation of localized solutions.

Conclusion

Amsterdam’s “Tourism in Balance” strategy demonstrates that clear, data-driven carrying-capacity targets can transform unbalanced tourism management from reactive crisis response into proactive governance. Key success factors include: a simple yet binding KPI (overnight-stay cap); a robust real-time data platform for continuous monitoring and predictive modeling; a balanced portfolio of supply-side regulations and demand-management campaigns; and a participatory governance framework engaging local, regional, and supra-municipal actors.

Nonetheless, a set of challenges remains. These include scaling the approach beyond municipal boundaries, fostering multi-level cooperation on international visitor flows, and maintaining political will to enforce limits in the face of ongoing tourism growth and evolving tourist profiles – particularly as new waves of visitors, such as those from the Middle East, increasingly choose European cities as destinations. Amsterdam also plays a leading role in the European Alliance for Balanced Urban Tourism, collaborating with other major European cities to share results, learnings, and progress. In this context and as a replicable blueprint, Amsterdam’s experience offers valuable lessons for cities worldwide seeking to safeguard resident well-being while preserving the economic benefits of tourism.

Methodology and References

This case study is based on a mixed methodology that combines desk analysis of official and scientific documentation with the processing of qualitative data collected through interviews.

On one hand, an in-depth analysis of secondary sources was conducted, including:

On the other hand, a qualitative interview was conducted with Thijs Koster, Policy Advisor Visitors Economy for the Department of Economic Affairs and Culture of the City of Amsterdam, on July 22, 2025.

The interview protocol was designed as a semi-structured framework, composed of macro thematic areas and guiding questions, but was used with an open and adaptable approach to allow for spontaneous responses and any relevant digressions arising during the conversation. The 70-minute interview was recorded, with the participant’s prior informed consent. A full transcript of the recording was then analyzed using thematic analysis to identify recurring themes, divergences, and emerging categories.

This case study was originally written in Italian and shared in its full version with the partners of the Interreg Italy-Switzerland project “DQuaDLA – Data Quality for Discovering Local Amenities.” It was subsequently summarized and translated into English.

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Tourism in balance: Amsterdam’s data-driven model for sustainable urban tourism

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